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Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Social Psychiatry and Psychiatric Epidemiology's content profile, based on 11 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Older adults beliefs about coping strategies for anxiety: A UK-based multicultural qualitative study informed by Leventhals Common-Sense Model of Self-Regulation

Alkholy, R.; Bee, P.; Pedley, R.; Lovell, K.

2026-03-30 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.03.28.26349595 medRxiv
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AIM Older adults experiencing anxiety disorders, particularly those from minority ethnic backgrounds, are less likely to use formal mental health services compared to their younger counterparts. This UK multicultural qualitative study aimed to explore and compare beliefs underpinning coping strategies for anxiety among self-reporting White British, South Asian, African and Caribbean older adults, using Leventhal's Common-Sense Model of Self-Regulation. METHODS Individual semi-structured interviews were undertaken with 52 older adults aged 65 and over who self-reported (current or past) anxiety. Professional interpreters supported interviews with non-English-speaking participants (n=10). Eight public contributors collaborated on different aspects of the study. The Framework Method was used to manage and analyse the data. FINDINGS The study drew on the perspectives of 27 older adults with distressing anxiety and 25 with non-distressing anxiety. Across all cultural groups, participants adopted different strategies to manage anxiety, the most prominent of which were self-help strategies. Help-seeking behaviour was influenced by a complex interplay of factors not recognised by Leventhal's Common-Sense Model. Notably, older adults' salient identities, rather than their cultural backgrounds, influenced their selection of coping strategies. CONCLUSIONS Interventions that empower older adults to use self-help strategies more effectively can serve as acceptable adjuncts to formal therapy. Nevertheless, addressing barriers to formal help-seeking is essential, particularly among those with a perceived need to seek help. No one model can depict the complexity of coping behaviours. While applying Leventhal's Common-Sense Model yielded novel insights, it could not fully capture the motivational factors underlying participation in specific coping behaviours. To provide nuanced and accurate insights, cross-cultural research should acknowledge heterogeneity within groups rather than impose boundaries of purportedly homogeneous entities.

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Longitudinal Trajectories of Child and Youth Mental Health Symptoms Across Distinct Phases of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A population-based study in Ontario, Canada

Georgiades, K.; Chen, Y.-J.; Johnson, D.; Miller, R.; Wang, L.; Sim, A.; Nolan, E.; Dryburgh, N.; Edwards, J.; O'byrne, S.; Repchuck, R.; Cost, K. T.; Duncan, L.; Golberg, M.; Duku, E.; Szatmari, P.; Georgiades, S.; MacMillan, H. L.; Waddell, C.

2026-04-04 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.02.26350051 medRxiv
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Background Although an expansive body of evidence exists on children's mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is largely restricted to the early phases and lockdowns. This study examines longitudinal changes in child and youth mental health symptoms across two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with data collection strategically timed to capture variability in pandemic restrictions. Methods A population-based longitudinal study of 1,261 children and youth aged 4-17 years followed prospectively from January 2021 to December 2022, with five waves of data collected in Ontario, Canada. Latent growth curve modelling was used to estimate trajectories of parent-reported mental health symptoms and identify baseline and time-varying covariates associated with variable trajectories. Findings Mental health symptoms were elevated and stable during lockdowns, followed by significant reductions as pandemic restrictions loosened, particularly for oppositional defiant and inattention/hyperactivity symptoms compared to internalizing symptoms. Children without pre-existing clinician diagnosed physical, mental or neurodevelopmental conditions and those not in lockdown at baseline demonstrated relative increases in mental health symptoms during lockdowns; and girls, compared to boys, demonstrated smaller reductions in internalizing symptoms as restrictions loosened. Concurrent and lagged associations between parental distress and children's mental health symptoms varied across the pandemic. Interpretation Variation in symptom trajectories by mental health domain, gender, pandemic restrictions and pre-existing diagnosed conditions underscores the need for tailored, equity-informed pandemic planning and response. Policies designed to optimize the balance between the need to reduce viral community transmission whilst limiting pandemic lockdowns may mitigate adverse impacts on child and youth mental health. Funding Ontario Ministry of Health

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Characterizing Loneliness and Health in US Adults: An analysis of 2024 National Health Interview Survey

Dildine, T. C.; Burke, C.; Kapos, F. P.

2026-04-17 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26351034 medRxiv
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Background: Loneliness is common and deleterious to health. Yet little is known about its population burden and health correlates in the US. We aimed to determine the prevalence of loneliness and characterize its health and social functioning correlates among US adults. Methods: With data from the National Health Interview Study (2024), we used survey-weighted Poisson regression to estimate relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for frequent loneliness by levels of self-reported general health, social/emotional support, social functioning, and healthcare utilization, adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, number of people in household, marital status, and psychological distress. Results: 12 million US adults reported usually or always feeling lonely, which was associated with worse general health and social/emotional support, work and social participation limitations, and healthcare disengagement. Conclusions: Loneliness affects millions of US adults, with substantial health and social functioning burden.

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Repeat Hospitalisation Following Admission for Mental Ill-health and Stress-Related Presentations in Children and Young People in England between 2014-2019: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Skirrow, C.; Bird, M.; Day, E.; Savoic, J.; deVocht, F.; Judge, A.; Moran, P.; Schofield, B.; Ward, I.

2026-04-03 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.01.26349988 medRxiv
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Background Hospital admissions for mental health (MH) and stress related presentations (SRP; symptoms without a clear medical cause which may be psychosomatic in nature) among children and young people (CYP) have risen over time. Rehospitalisation contributes to service costs, may indicate gaps in community based care, and can also disrupt education and social development. Methods This retrospective cohort study used NHS Hospital Episode Statistics to identify all CYP aged 10 to 25 with >1 MH/SRP related hospital admissions in England between 1 April 2014 and 31 March 2018, with follow up until 31 March 2019. Admissions were classified from ICD10 codes into internalising, externalising, personality, and eating disorders, psychosis, self-harm, substance use, postpartum, or potentially psychosomatic diagnostic groups. Outcomes included 30 day all cause readmission, 1 year all cause readmission, and 1 year MH/SRP-specific rehospitalisation. Time to rehospitalisation, and number of MH/SRP readmissions were also evaluated. Clinical and sociodemographic characteristics associated with rehospitalisation were assessed using regression models, time to rehospitalisation using Kaplan Meier analyses, and diagnostic transitions were visualised using Sankey diagrams. Results Of 492,061 CYP with hospital admission for MH/SRP, approximately one third were rehospitalised within one year. Females, older CYP and those from more deprived areas had higher odds of all cause readmission. The odds of MH/SRP rehospitalisation were highest among those aged 14 to 15 years. Co occurring chronic physical health conditions, personality and eating disorders were associated with higher odds, and shorter time, to readmission. Conclusions Rehospitalisation following MH/SRP admissions is common and socioeconomically patterned among CYP. Targeted discharge planning and continuity of care interventions are needed, particularly for high risk CYP admitted with eating and personality disorders.

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Violence exposure and mental health problems among school-aged children in a South African birth cohort

Bailey, M.; Hammerton, G.; Fairchild, G.; Tsunga, L.; Hoffman, N.; Burd, T.; Shadwell, R.; Danese, A.; Armour, C.; Zar, H. J.; Stein, D. J.; Donald, K. A.; Halligan, S. L.

2026-04-22 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351289 medRxiv
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ObjectiveThere is little longitudinal research investigating links between violence exposure and mental disorders among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), despite high rates of violence. We examined cross-sectional and longitudinal violence-mental health associations among children in a large South African birth cohort, the Drakenstein Child Health Study, including direct clinical interviews capturing childrens mental disorders. MethodIn this birth cohort (N=974), we assessed lifetime violence exposure and four subtypes (witnessed community, community victimization, witnessed domestic, domestic victimization) at ages 4.5 and 8-years via caregiver reports. At 8-years, caregivers completed the Child Behaviour Checklist; and psychiatric disorders were assessed using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview for Children and Adolescents, a self-report measure. We tested for associations using linear/logistic regressions, adjusted for confounders. ResultsMost children (91%) had experienced violence by 8-years. Cross-sectionally, total violence exposure was associated with total (B =0.49 [95% CI 0.32, 0.66]), internalizing (0.32 [0.17, 0.47]), and externalizing problems (0.46 [0.31, 0.61]), and with increased odds of disorder at 8 years (aOR=1.09 [1.05, 1.13]). Longitudinally, total violence exposure up to 4.5-years was associated with total (B=0.27 [0.03, 0.52]), internalizing (0.24 [0.04. 0.44]), and externalizing scores (0.23 [0.008, 0.45]) at 8-years, but not with increased risk of psychiatric disorders. The strongest and most consistent associations were observed for domestic versus community violence subtypes. ConclusionOur strong cross-sectional but weaker longitudinal findings suggest that recent violence exposures may be more critical than early exposures for childrens mental health. Longitudinal exploration of other violence-affected LMIC populations is urgently needed.

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The Interplay of Spirituality and Self-Regulation in Youths: A Real-Time Examination of Mental Health Dynamics (SPIRIT)

Urben, S.; Von Niederhausern, C.; Ranjbar, S.; Plessen, K. J.; Glaus, J.

2026-03-30 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.03.27.26349490 medRxiv
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Background. Adolescence and young adulthood represent critical developmental stages during which mental disorders often emerge, with the potential to impede perceived quality of life. Spirituality (i.e., the search for the sacred) and self-regulation (i.e., intrinsic processes regulating emotions, thoughts, and behaviors) are recognized as protective factors for mental health. However, their dynamic interplay remains largely unexplored, particularly in real-life and in real-time among youths. This study, developed with the help of young partners, addresses this gap by investigating the longitudinal associations between spirituality, self-regulation, and mental health using an ecological momentary assessment (EMA) approach. Methods and analysis. We plan to recruit 120 adolescents and young adults (aged 16 to 20, expected attrition rate of 20%) from the community to complete a qualitative semi-structured interview assessing their beliefs, spiritual or religious activities, role models, and meaning in life. In addition, participants will take part in a multi-wave intensive longitudinal study. Trait-level assessments will be conducted at two time points, three months apart, to capture between-person differences. Additionally, to assess within-person dynamics, participants will complete EMA surveys four times daily over 10 consecutive days in two waves, also three months apart. Measures will include facets of spirituality (e.g., beliefs, meaning, collective consciousness), self-regulation (e.g., self-control, emotional regulation, impulsivity), as well as mental health indicators (emotional and behavioral symptoms) and quality of life. Qualitative data will be analyzed through a thematic analysis method, whereas quantitative associations will be assessed using Linear Mixed Models (LMM) and network analyses. Ethics and dissemination. Ethical approval has been obtained, and data collection begun in May 2025. Findings will be disseminated through open access peer-reviewed journals, conferences on adolescent mental health, and shared with practitioners, educators, and youth organizations. Results will also be made accessible to the general public. This study aims to inform personalized preventive and therapeutic interventions by elucidating real-time mechanisms linking spirituality, self-regulation, and mental health in youths.

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Experiential acceptance during an episode of anxiety: Conceptualizing the process of acceptance through a qualitative study

Ribeyron, J.; Duriez, N.; Shankland, R.

2026-04-08 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.03.26346604 medRxiv
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Introduction Experiential acceptance refers to the capacity to be open to internal experiences without attempting to change or avoid them. Although acceptance is a core emotion regulation strategy within mindfulness- and acceptance-based interventions (MABIs) and a protective factor for mental health, its conceptualization and implementation remain unclear and ambiguous. The aim of this study was to clarify and develop a comprehensive model of accepting anxiety. Method Twenty-six participants from a non-clinical sample with prior experience in MABIs took part in semi-structured interviews exploring their experience of accepting anxiety. Data collection and analysis followed the principles of Grounded Theory to generate a data-driven model of the acceptance process. Results We identified a five-stage dynamic model involving distinct processes: (Stage 1) observing through the body with attentional focus on interoceptive experience; (Stage 2) identifying and acknowledging anxiety; (Stage 3) validating and normalizing the experience through validation and self-compassion; (Stage 4) not reacting characterized by decentering and nonreactivity; and (Stage 5) staying with the experience via exposure. We also identified facilitating factors that support engagement in the acceptance process. Conclusion These findings refine the understanding of acceptance as a multidimensional emotion regulation process by highlighting an active dynamic involving multiple mechanisms underlying the acceptance of anxiety. This model provides a framework for developing more targeted clinical interventions and for investigating individual and contextual variability in these subprocesses.

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Estimating severity and rate of change of depressive symptoms in adolescence: a comparison of functional principal component analysis and mixed effects models

Hernandez, M. A.; Kwong, A. S.; Li, C.; Simpkin, A. J.; Wootton, R. E.; Joinson, C.; Elhakeem, A.

2026-04-14 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350500 medRxiv
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Understanding depressive symptoms dynamics and their determinants is crucial for designing effective mental health support initiatives. This study compared two methods for describing youth depressive symptoms trajectories and investigated associations of early-life factors (maternal education, maternal perinatal depression, domestic violence, physical, emotional, or sexual abuse, bullying victimisation, psychiatric disorder) with trajectory features. Prospective data from 8,264 mostly White European participants (54% female), including self-reported Short Moods and Feelings Questionnaires on ten occasions between 10-25 years, were used. Trajectories were summarised using functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and P-splines linear mixed-effect (PLME) models. Estimated derivatives were used to obtain magnitude and age of peak symptoms and peak symptoms velocity. Both methods performed comparably, but PLME models tended to over-smooth trajectories. Peak symptoms and peak velocity were higher and occurred >1 year earlier in females than males. All early-life factors were associated with higher peak symptoms, and most associated with higher and earlier peak velocity. Abuse and bullying additionally associated with earlier age of peak symptoms. FPCA is a useful alternative for characterising depressive symptoms trajectories and informing time-sensitive preventative measures to reduce impact of depression before symptoms reach their peak. Early-life stressors may accelerate timeline and intensity of symptoms escalation during adolescence. Lay summaryUnderstanding development of depressive symptoms and factors shaping them is crucial for designing effective mental health support initiatives. This study used data from over 8,000 young people regularly followed up from before birth to compare two cutting-edge methods for describing depressive symptoms trajectories and examined how known risk factors for adulthood depression relate to the severity and rate of change of depressive symptoms in adolescence. We found that both methods performed well and that the peaks in depressive symptoms and their rate of change were, on average, higher and occurred over a year earlier in females than males. Our findings additionally suggest that early-life stressors (e.g., abuse, bullying) may accelerate the development of depression, highlighting the importance of early prevention.

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Normative Benchmarks for the Parent-report Nationwide Quality of Life Scale (P-NQLS)

Liu, Y.; Youngstrom, E. A.; Nienaber, E. A.; Fristad, M. A.

2026-04-18 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26350886 medRxiv
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Introduction: The Nationwide Quality of Life Scale (NQLS) is a brief, mental-health focused quality of life (QoL) scale with seven items that are non-overlapping with symptom scales. We developed a parent version (P-NQLS), obtained national norms, and calculated psychometric properties for the P-NQLS. Methods: Parents (N=2251) of children aged 6-18 years who were representative of the U.S. population on key demographics completed the P-NQLS along with measures of depression, suicidality, internalizing, externalizing, and attention symptoms. We assessed the P-NQLS's factor structure through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and evaluated its internal reliability and convergent validity. Age- and sex-specific norms were established using GAMLSS with BCPE distributions and P-spline smoothers, with percentile curves and tables (5th-95th) provided. Results: EFA suggested a one-factor solution for P-NQLS in the national sample. The scale showed good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha=0.85). P-NQLS total scores (M=20.7, SD=4.7, range=0-28, higher scores indicate higher QoL) were negatively correlated (all p<.0001) with depression (Pearson's r=-0.47), suicidality (r=-0.50), internalizing (r=-0.43), externalizing (r=-0.41), and attention (r=-0.37) symptoms. P-NQLS scores declined steadily with age in both sexes, with the most pronounced decreases (3-5 points) observed at lower percentiles (5th, 10th), suggesting greater age-related decline among children with lower baselines. Females scored slightly higher than males across most ages and percentile levels, though the differences were within one point. Conclusions: The newly created P-NQLS, a 7-item parent-reported QoL scale with one underlying factor, demonstrates strong reliability and validity and has robust national norms for youth aged 6-18.

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Anxiety Symptom Trajectories Following AI-Powered Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in United Kingdom Primary Care: A Multilevel Growth Curve Analysis of the NHS Digital Wellbeing Programme

Lim, A.; Pemberton, J.

2026-03-31 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.03.29.26349667 medRxiv
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Background: The NHS Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) programme, now rebranded as NHS Talking Therapies, faces persistent capacity constraints with average wait times exceeding 90 days for cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) in many Clinical Commissioning Group areas. AI-powered CBT platforms have been introduced as a digital adjunct within stepped care, yet longitudinal evidence on anxiety symptom trajectories and their predictors in routine NHS settings remains limited. Objective: To model individual anxiety symptom trajectories among patients referred to an AI-powered CBT platform within NHS primary care, identify distinct trajectory classes, and examine patient-level and practice-level predictors of differential treatment response using multilevel growth curve modeling. Methods: A prospective cohort study was conducted using linked clinical and administrative data from 6,284 patients (aged 18-65) referred to the CalmLogic AI-CBT platform across 187 general practices in four NHS England Integrated Care Systems (ICSs) between April 2023 and September 2025. Patients completed GAD-7 assessments at baseline, 4 weeks, 8 weeks, 12 weeks, and 24 weeks. Three-level growth curve models (assessments nested within patients nested within practices) with random intercepts and random slopes were fitted. Growth mixture modeling (GMM) was subsequently applied to identify latent trajectory classes. Predictors were examined at Level 2 (patient demographics, baseline severity, comorbidities, digital literacy, engagement intensity) and Level 3 (practice deprivation index, list size, urban/rural classification, and IAPT wait time). Results: The unconditional growth model revealed a significant average linear decline in GAD-7 scores of -0.94 points per month (p < .001), with substantial between-patient variation in both intercepts (variance = 14.82, p < .001) and slopes (variance = 0.38, p < .001). Significant between-practice variation accounted for 8.7% of intercept variance (ICC = 0.087). Growth mixture modeling identified four distinct trajectory classes: Rapid Responders (28.4%, steep early decline stabilising by week 8); Gradual Improvers (34.1%, steady linear decline through 24 weeks); Partial Responders (22.8%, modest early improvement followed by a plateau at clinically significant levels); and Non-Responders (14.7%, minimal change or slight deterioration). Higher baseline severity, female gender, and greater module completion predicted membership in the Rapid Responder class. Practice-level IAPT wait times exceeding 90 days independently predicted faster improvement trajectories (coefficient = -0.31, p = .003), suggesting that AI-CBT has its greatest incremental value in capacity-constrained areas. Patients in the most deprived quintile showed slower trajectories (coefficient = 0.22, p = .011) despite equivalent engagement levels, indicating a deprivation-related treatment response gap. Conclusions: AI-powered CBT platforms integrated within NHS primary care produce significant anxiety symptom reduction on average, but treatment response is heterogeneous, with four distinct trajectory classes identified. The finding that longer IAPT wait times predict better AI-CBT outcomes supports the platform's positioning as a scalable bridge intervention for capacity-constrained services. The deprivation-related response gap warrants targeted support strategies for patients in the most disadvantaged communities.

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Employment status, occupational profile, and common mental disorders among workers in urban informal settlements in Brazil

Cavalcanti Prestes, J. F.; Nunes, T. S.; Souza, F. N.; de Carvalho Santiago, D. C.; Lopez, Y. A.; Goncalves Palma, F. A.; Santana, J. O.; dos Santos, P. E. F.; de Olieveira, D.; Awoniyi, A. M.; Stauber, C. E.; Costa, F.; Cremonese, C.

2026-04-07 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.01.26350007 medRxiv
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Urban informal settlements (referred to as favelas in Brazil), reflect longstanding socioeconomic and racial inequalities and are home to a workforce frequently exposed to precarious employment conditions. This study describes the socio-occupational characteristic and estimates the prevalence of common mental disorders (CMDs) among workers residing in five urban informal communities in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil. A cross-sectional epidemiological study (n=587) was conducted with formal and informal workers aged 18-70 years. The outcome was measured using the Self-Reporting Questionnaire-SRQ-20, and associations were evaluated using Poisson Regression, with analysis stratified by employment type. Data analysis was performed using R 3.6.0+ software. The overall prevalence of CMD was 14.0%, increasing to 22.7% among informal workers. In the adjusted analysis of the overall sample, informal employment and persistent fear of job loss were associated with a higher prevalence of mental health problems, whereas the 40-49 age groups showed a lower prevalence of CMD compared with younger workers. In stratified analyses, female sex and job insecurity were associated with CMD among formal workers, while lower monthly income (<$181) was an important among informal workers. This pioneering study highlights the role of precarious employment conditions in the social determination of mental health distress among residents of urban informal communities.

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Neurobehavioral Profiles of Inhibitory-Control Stratify Vulnerability and Resilience under Childhood Poverty

Hu, B.; Yang, T.; Hu, Y.; Liu, M.; Tan, S.; Li, X.; Qin, S.

2026-04-27 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.18.26350994 medRxiv
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Objective: Childhood poverty is a high-risk context that involves diverse adversities, making it difficult to understand how poverty confers later psychopathology risk and why some children remain resilient despite growing up in poverty. To address this heterogeneity, we quantified adversity-linked vulnerability as adversity-psychopathology coupling and tested whether childhood poverty amplifies this coupling and whether multilevel inhibitory-control profiles stratify vulnerability and resilience within poverty-exposed youth. Methods: We analyzed 10,112 youth (48.4% female; mean age = 9.92 years) from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study, linking baseline cumulative early-life adversity (ELA) to later behavioral problems across 4 waves. In the stop-signal task fMRI subsample of 7,401 youth, semi-supervised clustering of inhibitory-control activation identified neurofunctional subtypes within poverty-exposed youth. We also tested temperamental inhibitory control as an additional moderator. Results: Childhood poverty amplified the association between cumulative ELA and behavioral problems at baseline ({Delta}{beta} = 0.088; P < .001) and across follow-up waves. Two neurofunctional subtypes were identified within poverty-exposed youth: subtype-1 showed greater vulnerability than higher-income peers ({Delta}{beta} = 0.149; P < .001), whereas subtype-2 showed attenuated vulnerability and did not differ from higher-income peers ({Delta}{beta} = 0.049; P = .135); this pattern persisted longitudinally. Among poverty-exposed youth in subtype-2 with high temperamental inhibitory control, the association between cumulative ELA and later behavioral problems was no longer significant. Conclusions: Childhood poverty strengthened the translation of adversity burden into later behavioral problems, but inhibitory-control profiles differentiated higher- and lower-risk pathways within poverty, highlighting inhibitory control as a candidate target for prevention.

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Impact of AI-Powered Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Chatbot Access on Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms Among Primary Care Patients in Brazil: A Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design

Ferreira, C.; Lim, A.

2026-04-02 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.01.26349938 medRxiv
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Background: AI powered cognitive behavioral therapy CBT chatbots represent a scalable approach to addressing the global mental health treatment gap However causal evidence on their population level effectiveness in low and middle income countries LMICs remains limited and patient perspectives on acceptability and engagement are critical determinants of sustained use Brazils Estrategia de Saude da Familia ESF deployed an AI powered CBT chatbot Saude Mental Digital SMD to registered patients aged 18 and older at participating primary care units with eligibility determined by a composite vulnerability score exceeding a predetermined threshold Objective: To estimate the causal effect of AI powered CBT chatbot access on anxiety and depressive symptoms among primary care patients in Minas Gerais Brazil leveraging the eligibility score threshold as an exogenous source of variation Methods: We conducted a fuzzy regression discontinuity design fuzzy RDD study using linked administrative and clinical data from 312 ESF primary care units across Minas Gerais N 43287 patients January 2022 December 2024 The running variable was the composite vulnerability score with a threshold of 60 points determining chatbot eligibility The primary outcome was the 12 week change in the Patient Health Questionnaire Anxiety and Depression Scale PHQ ADS composite score Two stage least squares 2SLS estimation was used with local polynomial regression and triangular kernel weighting Bandwidth selection followed the Calonico Cattaneo Titiunik CCT optimal procedure Results: The fuzzy RDD estimated a local average treatment effect LATE of 473 points 95 CI 691 to 255 p 0001 on the PHQ ADS composite score at the eligibility threshold indicating clinically meaningful symptom reduction among compliers First stage estimates confirmed a strong 312 percentage point jump in chatbot uptake at the threshold F statistic 1274 Subgroup analyses revealed larger treatment effects among patients in rural municipalities 618 95 CI 902 to 334 those with lower educational attainment 582 95 CI 844 to 320 and women 537 95 CI 761 to 313 McCrary density tests confirmed no evidence of running variable manipulation p 067 Results were robust across alternative bandwidths polynomial orders and kernel specifications Conclusions: AI powered CBT chatbot access causally reduces anxiety and depressive symptoms among primary care patients near the eligibility threshold in Brazil with particularly pronounced benefits for rural less educated and female populations These findings provide quasi experimental evidence supporting the scalable deployment of AI powered CBT tools within public primary care systems in LMICs while underscoring the importance of incorporating patient perspectives on acceptability to maximize engagement and sustained therapeutic benefit

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The impact of the two-child benefit cap on parental mental, general, and financial health in the UK

Paulino, A.; Dykxhoorn, J.; Evans-Lacko, S.; Patalay, P.

2026-04-01 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.03.30.26349774 medRxiv
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Background: The two-child benefit cap, implemented in April 2017, restricted Universal Credit and Child Tax Credit to the first two children in households with three or more children. We evaluate the impact of the two-child benefit cap on parental mental, general, and financial health, as well as investigate how this may differ in particular sociodemographic and economic subgroups based on sex, ethnicity and income. Methods: Data was obtained from parents (youngest child aged 5 or under) in the UK Household Longitudinal Survey from 2009 to 2023. Outcomes included parental mental health (psychological distress and life satisfaction), general health (health-related quality of life (HRQoL), self-rated health and health satisfaction), and financial health (current financial situation and financial outlook). We used complementary policy evaluation methods with different strengths and assumptions to triangulate evidence and strengthen inference: interrupted time series (ITS), difference-in-differences (DiD) and controlled time series analysis (CITS). Subgroup analyses were stratified by sex, ethnicity, and income. Findings: Across methods, findings consistently indicate that the policy worsened life satisfaction, self-rated health, health satisfaction, and financial health for parents of 3+ children. Findings were less consistent across methods for psychological distress and HRQoL. For instance, for psychological distress ITS and CITS indicate adverse impacts of the policy; however, one DiD model did not support this conclusion due to greater average worsening in the control group between the pre- and post-periods. Subgroup analyses indicate greater mental health and general health impacts in lower income, male and ethnic minority parents; while financial health was negatively impacted in all subgroups examined. Conclusions: Using repeated cross-sectional panel data and triangulating across causal inference methods, we conclude that the two-child benefit cap in the UK had a measurable adverse impact on most health outcomes examined, with worse outcomes for male, lower income and ethnic minority parents.

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GPS Mobility Tracking, Ecological Momentary Assessment, and Qualitative Interviewing to Specify How Space Produces Intersectional Health Inequities: Development and Pilot Testing of the Spatial Intersectionality Health Framework (SIHF) and IGEMA Methodology

Cook, S. H.

2026-04-13 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.09.26350546 medRxiv
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Background. Young sexual and gender minorities of color face compound health risks shaped by interlocking systems of racism, cisgenderism, and class inequality. Spatial health research documents that place shapes health, but existing methods cannot specify the mechanisms through which spatial configurations produce different health outcomes for differently positioned people. This gap prevents targeted intervention. ObjectiveTo develop and pilot test the Spatial Intersectionality Health Framework (SIHF), which specifies three mechanisms through which space produces intersectional health inequities: Layered (multiple oppressive systems activating simultaneously), Positional (the same space producing different health pathways by intersectional position), and Conditional (nominally protective spaces carrying hidden costs for specific positions). We also introduce and validate Intersectional Geographically-Explicit Ecological Momentary Assessment (IGEMA) as the methodology operationalizing SIHF across three data levels. MethodsThe GeoSense study enrolled 32 young sexual and gender minorities of color (ages 18-29) in New York City. IGEMA was implemented across three integrated levels: (1) GPS mobility tracking via participants personal smartphones, linked to census tract structural exposure indices across n=19 participants; (2) ecological momentary assessment of intersectional discrimination with multilevel modeling of mood, stress, and sleep outcomes; and (3) map-guided qualitative interviews with SIHF mechanism coding and intercoder reliability assessment across 92 coded records from 18 participants. This study was conducted as the pilot for NIH R01HL169503. ResultsAll three SIHF mechanisms were empirically detectable. A compound structural gendered racism index outperformed every single-axis alternative in predicting daily mood (b=-0.048, p=.001) and stress (b=0.121, p<.001). The Positional mechanism accounted for 71% of coded harm experiences. Intercoder reliability for mechanism assignment reached kappa=0.824 at Stage 2 reconciliation. Daily intersectional discrimination predicted greater sleep disturbance (b=1.308, p=.004). ConclusionsSIHF and IGEMA together provide an empirically testable framework for specifying how space produces intersectional health inequities. Mechanism specification, not spatial location alone, is the condition for designing research and intervention that reaches the source of harm for multiply marginalized populations.

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Efficacy of Tailored Messages for 28-Week Exercise Sustainability in People with HIV

Cook, P. F.; Webel, A. R. F.; Wilson, M. P.; Horvat Davey, C.; Oliveira, V.; Khuu, V.; Matzio, S.; Kulik, G. L.; MaWhinney, S.; Jankowski, C. M.; Erlandson, K. M.

2026-03-31 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.03.29.26349681 medRxiv
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Background: People with HIV (PWH) have increased risk for cardiovascular diseases and other age-related comorbidities. These risks can be reduced through moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA), but MVPA can be difficult to sustain over time. Purpose: We tested tailored text messages added to motivational interviewing (MI) to sustain MVPA among PWH. Messages were created based on Two Minds Theory and matched to daily survey responses about exercise barriers. Methods: 118 PWH ages > 50 were initially randomized to high-intensity interval training or continuous moderate-intensity exercise. After 16 weeks, 92 participants were re-randomized to receive either tailored messages plus MI, or educational control messages, for 12 weeks. Both groups completed daily barrier surveys and wore an ActiGraph monitor for 1 week/month. Results: PWH still receiving messages at 28 weeks maintained their MVPA, ending at M = 48.8 minutes per day (SD = 45.8, n = 22/29), compared to a decrease among PWH in the educational-control group, ending at M = 40.7 (SD = 24.6, n = 25/32), p = .01 for the group-by-time interaction. Findings were similar using both actigraphy and self-reported MVPA, and were robust to attrition based on intent-to-treat analysis. PWH in the tailored-messaging group also reported higher exercise self-efficacy and better perceived health over time, relative to those in the educational-control group. Conclusions: An automated tailored-messaging intervention led to sustained MVPA. Tailored messages were superior to non-tailored educational messages, and may help PWH maintain their long-term health. Exploratory analyses suggested these effects were additive to motivational interviewing.

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The multidimensional structure of wellbeing: genetic evidence from a multivariate twin study including the Mental Health Continuum

Azcona Granada, N.; Geijsen, A.; de Vries, L. P.; Pelt, D.; Bartels, M.

2026-03-30 genetics 10.64898/2026.03.27.714768 medRxiv
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Wellbeing is commonly defined as the combination of feeling good and functioning well and typically conceptualized as two related but distinct components. Hedonic wellbeing emphasizes pleasure, happiness, and life satisfaction, while eudaimonic wellbeing focuses on meaning, personal growth, flourishing, and the realization of ones potential. The Mental Health Continuum-Short Form was developed as a comprehensive measure of wellbeing and includes three subscales assessing emotional, social, and psychological wellbeing. Although the Mental Health Continuum total score is often interpreted as an indicator of overall wellbeing, the underlying genetic structure of its three subscales and its genetic overlap with other commonly used wellbeing measures remains unclear. Using data from 5,212 individuals from the Netherlands Twin Register (72% female, mean age 36.4), we fitted multivariate twin models to examine the genetic architecture of the Mental Health Continuum and its associations with other wellbeing measures (quality of life, life satisfaction, subjective happiness, and flourishing). Results indicate that, at the genetic level, the Mental Health Continuum is best explained by its three distinct subscales rather than by a latent factor. When considering the Mental Health Continuum together with the other wellbeing measures, we found moderate to high genetic correlations (r = 0.52 - 0.83), indicating substantial overlap in the genetics underlying the wellbeing constructs. However, we did not find evidence for a single common genetic factor underlying all constructs. These findings highlight the multidimensional structure of wellbeing, but the moderate to high genetic correlations across measures suggest that it is important to align the level of measurement (phenotypic vs genetic) with the research question.

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The lingering legacy: Resilience mediates the long-term impact of organisational support on police retirement adjustment

Vaportzis, E.; Edwards, W.

2026-04-11 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.08.26349526 medRxiv
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This study investigated retirement adjustment in retired police officers in the UK (N = 289), examining how time since leaving the service moderates the relationship between perceived organisational support and retirement adjustment while accounting for resilience. Results indicated a developmental trend: organisational support remains stable initially but becomes increasingly influential in later life. Using Johnson-Neyman analysis, a threshold of 32.07 years was identified, after which the association reaches statistical significance. These findings suggest an organisational legacy effect; for the older generation, the retrospective perception of being valued by the service acts as a durable psychological resource. This study offers a novel conceptualisation of long-term organisational influence by identifying a temporally delayed legacy effect that extends beyond existing models of retirement adjustment. The study advocate for lifelong wellbeing strategies that extend, recognising that the organisational relationship continues to shape adjustment outcomes decades after the conclusion of active duty.

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Inequality in healthy lifespan following surgery: a longitudinal population study

Wan, Y. I.; Pearse, R. M.; Prowle, J. R.

2026-04-27 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.25.26351729 medRxiv
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Background Surgery is a widely used treatment option but the impact of surgery on long-term disease across socioeconomic groups is unknown. Methods Longitudinal population study using linked primary and secondary care data describing adults ([&ge;]18 years) in England recorded in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) between 1st January 2012 and 31st December 2021. Socioeconomic deprivation was defined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). The exposure was surgery and primary outcome was long-term disease. Data are presented as n (%), median (IQR), and adjusted hazards ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals. Findings Of 18,329,659 people, 8,951,145 (48.8%) underwent surgery. 78.6% of index surgeries were elective (n=7,032,475), 21.4% were emergency (n=1,918,670). Amongst surgical patients, 4,741,188 (52.0%) were women, 3,540,136 (39.6%) from the most deprived deciles (IMD 1-4) and 994,595 (11.1%) from a minority ethnic group. Age-standardised rates of surgery were higher in deprived individuals (comparative rate ratio IMD 1 vs. IMD 10 elective: 1.11 (95% CI 1.11-1.11), emergency: 1.54 (1.54-1.54)). Age at first surgery was 42 (27-60) years for elective and 42 (25-65) years for emergency surgery overall, but lower for people from IMD 1-4 (elective: 39 (26-57) years, emergency: 38 (24-60) years). Rates of long-term disease increased following both elective (baseline 19.6%, three years 24.5%) and emergency surgery (baseline 10.3%, three years 12.3%). Risk of new long-term disease following surgery increased with increasing levels of deprivation (IMD 1 vs. IMD 10 elective: HR 1.46 (1.45-1.48), emergency: HR 1.46 (1.44-1.48)). Interpretation Surgical treatment is strongly associated with the onset of long-term disease and factors which limit healthy life expectancy. Surgery occurs at a younger age among socioeconomically deprived groups and may be linked to health inequalities. Similar but more complex patterns of inequality were seen in minority ethnic groups. Funding Barts Charity and UK Academy of Medical Sciences.

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A fully remote randomized controlled trial of an ultra-brief digital meditation intervention reduces internalizing symptoms

Glick, C. C.; Pirzada, S. T.; Quah, S. K.; Feldman, S.; Enabulele, I.; Madsen, S.; Billimoria, N.; Feldman, S.; Bhatia, R.; Spiegel, D.; Saggar, M.

2026-04-21 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.04.19.26351219 medRxiv
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BackgroundScalable, low-burden behavioral interventions are needed to address rising subclinical mental health symptoms. However, few randomized controlled trials have evaluated ultra-brief, remotely delivered, meditation using multimodal outcome assessment under real-world conditions. MethodsWe conducted a fully remote randomized controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT06014281) evaluating a focused-attention meditation intervention delivered via brief instructor training and independent daily practice. A total of 299 meditation-naive adults were randomized to immediate intervention or waitlist control in a delayed-intervention design. Participants practiced [&ge;]10 minutes daily for 8 weeks within a 16-week study. Outcomes included validated self-report measures, web-based cognitive tasks, and wearable-derived physiological metrics. ResultsAcross randomized and within-participant replication phases, the intervention was associated with significant reductions in anxiety and mind wandering, with effects remaining stable during 8-week follow-up. Improvements were greatest among participants with higher baseline symptom burden. Sleep disturbance improved selectively among individuals with poorer baseline sleep. Secondary outcomes, including rumination, perceived stress, social connectedness, and quality of life, also improved. Cognitive performance showed modest improvements primarily among lower-performing participants. Resting heart rate exhibited nominal reductions. ConclusionsAn ultra-brief, fully remote meditation intervention requiring 10 minutes per day was associated with sustained improvements in psychological functioning and smaller, baseline-dependent effects on cognition in a non-clinical population. These findings support digital delivery of low-dose meditation as a scalable preventive mental health strategy.